The biggest electoral question of the year is undoubtedly who becomes the next president. But just after that follows the issue of whether the Senate majority will flip again. Republicans took the chamber with a 54-46 seat majority in the 2014 midterm elections. Keeping that lead in 2016, however, will prove a more difficult task.
According to The Huffington Post’s Senate model, which relies on the polls aggregated in HuffPost Pollster charts, there’s a 55 percent chance that the Senate will swing completely over ― and a 23 percent chance that it’s tied at 50 seats for each party. That means there’s a 78 percent chance that the Democratic Party could get 50 or more seats.
Part of the Democrats’ advantage comes from holding more safe seats in the Senate than the Republicans; they have 36 seats that aren’t up for election, compared to the GOP’s 30 safe seats. But some Republican candidates are underperforming, possibly thanks to Donald Trump at the top of the ticket.