Monday, February 8, 2016

Siena Poll: Clinton And Trump Lead In New York

One was born and raised in New York, and came to exemplify the city’s intoxication with success and grandeur. 

Another moved here to run for a U.S. Senate seat, settling in an affluent suburban neighborhood in Westchester County following a “listening tour” in upstate New York. 

And now both Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton hold double-digit leads over their respective rivals for the presidential nominating contest in New York, a Siena College poll released today finds. 

Clinton, the former secretary of state who represented New York in the Senate from 2001 through 2008, leads Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, (who is Brooklyn born), 55 percent to 34 percent among Democratic voters. 

Trump, a real-estate developer and reality TV show host, receives 34 percent of the vote among Republican voters. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz each have 16 percent. 

Gov. Chris Christie of neighboring New Jersey received support from 11 percent of GOP voters, with all other candidates who are still in the running in the single digits. 

New York’s presidential primary is scheduled for April 19. The state’s primary is usually so late in the calendar for presidential primaries that it rarely matters in the nominating process. 

But with Republican candidates bunched up together in an effort to dislodge Trump, and Clinton fending off a surprisingly strong challenge from Sanders, it’s possible New York could still be in play by the start of the spring. 

Despite the lead Trump holds here in his home state, he also polls with the highest unfavorable rating – 71 percent – of any of the presidential candidates. 

At the same time, New York is not likely (for now) to turn a shade of red in the upcoming November general election. More than half of voters expect Clinton will be the next president, including two-thirds of Democratic voters. 

Both Clinton and Sanders lead potential Republican challengers in a general election matchup by double digits, the poll shows. 

Among the GOP candidates, Rubio and Christie come closest in running against Clinton and Sanders, but they’re still far behind in New York. 

Clinton leads Rubio in a head-to-head duel by 17 percentage points, while she leads Christie by 19 percentage points. Sanders defeats Rubio, meanwhile, by 22 percentage points and Christie by 23 percentage points. 

New York last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 1984, when President Ronald Reagan was re-elected in a landslide. 

When it comes to issues facing the country, New York voters list jobs and the economy at the top, along with keeping America safe. 

At 72 percent, the issue of jobs beats security (51 percent) overall with most demographic groups save for Republican voters, the poll found. 

The poll of 930 registered voters, including 434 Democrats and 235 Republicans, was conducted from Jan. 31 through Feb. 3. It has a margin of error 3.8 percent overall. For Democratic respondents, the margin of error is 7 percent. For GOP responders, it is 5.6 percent. 

Sny0215 President Crosstabs by Nick Reisman

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