One of the biggest immediate hits to the economy is the expiration of the payroll tax cut, which for some reason nobody was interested in extending for another year. That alone could trim 0.5 percent from GDP, according to Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors chief economist Ian Shepherdson -- and that doesn't include any "multiplier" effects from weaker consumer spending. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius sees the payroll-tax cut shaving 0.6 percent from GDP.
Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi said in an emailed statement that he thinks all of the tax increases taking effect this week, including the payroll-tax increase, will cut 0.75 percent from GDP growth and lead to 600,000 fewer jobs being created this year. POST