Monday, November 5, 2012

Obama Campaign Believes Early Vote Has Put Them Over the Top

As President Obama barnstorms the country with high-wattage celebrities, designed to maximize news coverage of rallies where he delivers his closing argument for re-election, campaign staffers in Chicago are projecting serious confidence about the election results. The convention center at McCormick Place is a flurry of activity as it is outfitted for a speech from President Obama tomorrow night, and early voting tallies in particular have Obama for America officials sure that it will be a victory address, and not a concession speech.

“The math is clear. Our opponent is losing among early voters in nearly every public poll in every battleground state,” OFA national field director Jeremy Bird told reporters late Monday afternoon. “We’re confident a big showing on one day can’t match the votes we’ve already banked over the last month.”
He noted that, because of the large gains already made by Obama in many early-voting swing states, Mitt Romney has an incredibly tough job on Election Day. In North Carolina, for example, Romney must win 65 percent of the voters tomorrow in order to carry the state. In Iowa and Colorado, he needs 59 percent of the voters tomorrow; and 58 percent in Nevada, 55 percent in Florida and Ohio, and 52 percent in Virginia and Wisconsin.

And it’s not just as simple as having gotten more Democrats to vote—OFA has specifically targeted sporadic voters for early voting. These are people the campaign believes would be less likely to show up to the polls on Election Day itself, so it uses the days, and in some cases weeks, of early voting to persuade them.

Bird said that in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, and Nevada, 1.4 million Democrats who didn’t vote in the midterm elections have already cast ballots this year—compared to 840,000 sporadic Republican voters. POST

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