Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Obama Easily Tops Romney in Post-Debate Polls

James Carville said on CNN that if this debate last night had been a Little League game (I have a lot of experience on those fields) they would have called it after four innings, due to the “mercy rule.” That’s when one team is more than ten runs ahead.

That’s only a slight exaggeration. In my view, it was as clear an Obama win as the first debate was for Romney. One difference: GOPers and Fox did not admit that, as Dems and MSNBC did in the first instance.
Now to what really (sort of) matters, the post-debate polling.

CNN’s national poll of voters who watched gave it to Obama 48 percent to 40 percent—and once again CNN quietly admitted the sample skewed GOP. In previous polls, the skew was about 8 percent GOP (see final paragraph below). Obama won the previous debate by about the same margin. Without GOP skew, the edge would have been much bigger. CNN, of course, did not highlight that little detail.

First instant poll, and most valid, from CBS, with 521 undecided voters, scientific sample: big win for Obama, 53 percent—23 percent, with 24 percent claiming tie. Margin of error: 4 percent. CBS poll after first debate: Romney wins by 24 points. CBS poll after third debate: Obama wins by 30 points. But you won’t see many stories about passive Romney failing to prep or wake up.

A PPP poll of swing state voters: Obama won the debate 53-42.

By the way, a new CBS poll tonight on the national race gave Obama the lead 48 percent to 46 percent. A Washington Post/ABC poll earlier today had Obama up 1 percent. So the Gallup is truly an outlier. Nate Silver at The New York Times has full review of the latest polls here. Again he says election will come down to Ohio. Also: to Ohio. And: to Ohio. NBC now sees only seven "battleground" states, with Nevada going to Obama.  POST

No comments: