I have heard lots of reasons from lots of people telling us why Bill Owens will not win the 23rd. It seems very few are from here.
Let me make it clear and up front...Bill Owens is going to win. Now to why.
The 23rd Congressional district is changing. More and more people no longer rely on the local republican press but have access to the Internet and are able to get news that is un-tainted by the local partisanship.
Now lets look at the candidates. Dede Scozzafava is a politician that was and is part of the mess in Albany. She is far left to the average Oswego voter and is not known. Added she has never had a real challenge that is well funded and organized. She will have to campaign very hard and everyone who knows her knows this is her weakness. In short Dede does not fit the district or Oswego County.
Bill Owens can be summed up by the last sentence of the above paragraph, Bill Owens fits Oswego County. Bill holds the same opinions and values of most Oswego County voters. He is a common sense moderate who has not helped to create the mess in Albany. He has actually created JOBS and been a leader at bringing people together to solve problems.
The game changer is Doug Hoffman the conservative parties choice. Here is the true base of the republican party. The republican vote will split. Make no mistake about that. Many republicans did not want the candidate they have and they will make a protest vote thru Hoffman.
Some may try to make the reverse argument about a Dede pull for Democrats. For those that have lived in the Democratic Party their whole life in this area I can see there is very little draw for us to Dede. Basically for the reasons of her trying to distance herself from the very issues we share to reestablish her "Republicanism."
Numbers are also with Bill Owens. There are 197,081 Democrats and Independents to 167,272 Republicans. Also there are many "soft" republicans. That's when you resister as a republican because most people in the community are, but you split your ticket. Clearly this is the case in Oswego with the strong votes for Senate, US Senate and President over the last few election cycles.
Here is how I see the result, Owens 51%, Dede 39%, Hoffman 10%.
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